war with pak is inevitable

About 300 people have perished in the recent Mumbai attacks. Recent posts on various websites have put the number of deaths in such terrorists attacks in India at more than 4000.

There have been attacks before. There are preparations going on for attacks now. And there will be attacks tomorrow. When will it stop. Apparently never. It will stop when the leaders training these terrorists have a reason to stop training them. And the reality is there exists no such reason. There is not penal action that have been effectively been taken against such terrorist in the past, nor it appears it would be taken now. In these Scenario, what are the options left with the Government ? At present, the government will show restraint, not because of any deep thinking mode. but because, at present, howsoever one may not like to believe it, but the Armed forces at present are simply not ready for an all out war with Pakistan. And of course, the raw deal given to the soldiers in the sixth pay comission would itself result in many in the forces being disgruntled. Another reason is that the security establishment in the country is today filled with our highly talented, but rusted and incompetent civil servants. Unfortunately Was is not fought by the civil servants but by the Armed forces.

So summarizing the same, the war with pakistan is not going to happen, because, a) the armed forces are not ready for it. and b) at present the decision making is done by the incompetent civil servants, who frankly have no clue what is going on in the country.Fortunately, India has a democratic setup. What that means is that these kind of terrorists attackes will result in politicians with Right wing approach being voted to power.

So in my opinion this is what is going to happen, one, the government is quietly and surely going to sort out the pay mess of the soldiers. two, good hardware is going to come from the US. Three, more soldiers are going to be recruited. Four, Pakistan is going to be attacked. It will happen. may not happen tomorrow. but it will happen.

War is a very dirty “event”. it devastates whatever comes in its way. Unfortunately, it is a reality in the sub-sontinent. We let pakistan keep its army after the 1971 war. we should have made pakistan army-less then itself. Just like Japan and Germany after the Second world war. We are paying the price of poor strategic thinking.


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